Monthly report on cable raw materials (aluminum) June

I. Fundamental aspects

1, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) recently released a new report on the global primary aluminum market. According to the report, in April 2023, global primary aluminum production was 554.6345 million tons and consumption was 551.783 million tons. It is worth noting that the oversupply situation is obvious, reaching 34,560,000 tons.

2. According to customs data, domestic primary aluminum imports in May 2023 totaled 74,000 tons, down 25.9% YoY and up 98.5% YoY. May primary aluminum exports totaled 11,500 tons, up 180.4% YoY and down 82.3% YoY. May 2023 unwrought aluminum alloy imports were 82,800 tons, down 27.7% YoY and down The total import of January-May 2023 is 443,500 tons, a decrease of 19.3% year-on-year. May 2023 export of unwrought aluminum alloy is 19,900 tons, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year and an increase of 20.8% YoY. January-May total export is 93,300 tons, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year.

3, June 19 day alumina futures officially listed for trading, as of the close of the alumina main company rose 2.1%. Alumina spot average price since mid to late February 2023 has continued to decline, spot alumina reported 2814 yuan / ton, flat compared with the previous day, stopping five consecutive losses. It is understood that there is a strong resumption of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is expected, alumina market confidence in Guangxi and Guizhou region has been boosted, the price is expected to stop falling and stabilize.

4, the National Bureau of Statistics data released on June 15, China's May ten non-ferrous metal production of 6.15 million tons, an increase of 5.1%. January-May ten non-ferrous metal production of 30.24 million tons, an increase of 7.4%.

5, the National Bureau of Statistics data show that China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in May for 3.415 million tons, an increase of 1.1%. 1-May primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production of 16.705 million tons, an increase of 3.4%. May, although there are individual enterprises to reduce production, but because some electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Guangxi and Guizhou areas to resume production, the overall view, production than in April a small increase of 81,000 tons.

6, it is understood that Yunnan Province has convened local aluminum plant representatives to discuss the discussion, basically determine June 20 to start slotting resumption, the release of electricity load can support about 1.3 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity to start. At the same time, also need to take into account the problem of power load, to ensure adequate power supply, to avoid power shortage situation.

Shanghai aluminum in June was inverted "v" pattern trend running, the overall oscillation in the 17800-18700 range. At the beginning of the month Shanghai aluminum shock higher, the United States employment data is poor, in June the fed or suspend interest rate hike is expected, at the beginning of the month Shanghai aluminum shock higher, and with the fed rate hike results landed, as expected no rate hike, Shanghai aluminum 16 plate rose to 18700, but with the arrival of Yunnan abundant water period, electrolytic aluminum manufacturers to resume production news landed, the market is worried about the supply side of the loose situation, Shanghai aluminum is high retracement trend, and market concerns The Federal Reserve continued to open the second half of the interest rate hike rhythm, Shanghai aluminum continued to move lower, in the 27th plate fell to the low of the month near 17800.

Market, into June, aluminum prices wide oscillation, because the spot supply side is tight, the spot to maintain a high uplift trend, as of the end of the month, East China spot aluminum mainstream price of 18540 yuan / ton, the month's high of 18870 yuan / ton. The intra-month low was RMB 18,260/mt, up 1.42%. South China spot aluminum mainstream price of 19,070 yuan / ton, the month's high of 19,190 yuan / ton, the month's low of 18,610 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.52%. The spot spread between East China and South China widened to 500 yuan/ton.

After the market, into the summer, production and consumption conditions have declined, the market demand is difficult to have a large change, the relative weak situation or still continue, continue to drag the aluminum price trend; and with the resumption of production in the southwest region to promote, production or continue upward, aluminum ingot supply or increase, inventory around a certain accumulation of storage, the supply side of the aluminum price support or a certain decline; cost, into the abundant water period after the hydropower prices appear a certain Slipping, the recent coal prices also appear certain low, anode price high fall, the overall cost has declined, aluminum price lower support has weakened; Macro side, the fed continues to raise interest rates may still be larger, domestic for consumption stimulus policy or will increase, macro side aluminum price short-term disturbance is still strong.

As of June 29, LME aluminum inventories reached 531,225 tons, down 47,600 tons or 8.22% from the beginning of the month. The total inventory remained at the level of mid-April this year. Aluminum inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been declining since mid-March this year, and the rate of decline has slowed down significantly since mid-June. As of June 29, total aluminum inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 131,073 tons, down 23,742 tons or 15.34% from the beginning of the month. The total inventory still maintains a low level of operation. This month, the social inventory of aluminum ingots ended the continuous downward trend, and as of the end of June, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots was 522,000 tons, down 99,000 tons or 15.94% compared with the end of May; the total inventory is still at the low level in the same period of nearly five years. Aluminum ingot factory warehouse also has a small amount of depot, the overall inventory is still in the depot stage, but the pace of depot than in May slowed down significantly.

Dragon Boat Festival before the strong pull up in aluminum prices, the market hedge radar sounded to speed up the pace of shipments, but the recycled aluminum plant because of the continued poor order situation, in contrast to previous years before the holidays to actively replenish the library mentality, more than choose the pressure price wait and see receipt. And the first day after the holiday aluminum opening, the plate as the market expected a big dive, and with the scrap aluminum supply performance slightly stronger than demand, the terminal off-season pressure appears to force the scrap aluminum market slightly affixed back to the fundamentals of the track, transactions reduced, weak running is dominant.

Traditional off-season, June recycled aluminum market trading is still weak, due to the current domestic demand for a number of die-casting plants to reduce, while the number of recycled aluminum plants continue to increase, rapid production capacity, resulting in a slight imbalance between supply and demand in the market, coupled with high prices of raw materials, small and medium-sized production environment is worrying, and even some leading enterprises have to reduce their own profit value to maintain a stable output; if the second half of the policy side does not appear super If the second half of the policy end does not appear beyond expectations, the annual market or remain in the doldrums, especially for the completed not formally put into production of recycled aluminum enterprises, is undoubtedly a dilemma.

Outlook for the July market, is expected to stabilize the price of recycled alloy ingot after the first stabilization of the shock downward, the reference range of 1.75-181 million; concern about the spot inventory on the price support situation, or will indirectly affect the trend of alloy ingot prices.

After the market, into the summer, production and consumption conditions have declined, market demand is difficult to have a large change, the relative weak situation or still continue, continue to drag the aluminum price trend; and with the southwest region of the resumption of production to promote, production or continue upward, aluminum ingot supply or increase, inventory around a certain tired library, the supply side of the aluminum price support or a certain decline; macroscopic, the federal reserve continue to raise interest rates may still be larger, the domestic for consumption stimulus policy or will increase, macroscopic face of aluminum prices short-term disturbance is still strong. Domestic for consumption stimulation policy or will increase, macro face aluminum price short-term disturbance is still strong. In summary, is expected to July aluminum prices are still vulnerable to shocks, temporary attention to the 18000 mark support, later still have the possibility of falling below, concern about the progress of Yunnan resumption of production and inventory changes.